Why early US election results can be misleading?

Experts are warning that early vote returns in key battleground states may not accurately reflect the final outcome of the 2024 US presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Due to varying vote counting rules and the timing of ballot processing in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada, early results could be misleading.

In the 2020 election, a phenomenon known as the “red mirage” occurred when Donald Trump initially led in several states, only to be overtaken as mail-in ballots were counted.

Experts caution that a similar situation could unfold in 2024, with “blue mirages” potentially occurring in states like North Carolina and Georgia, where mail-in ballots may initially favor Harris.

Each of the key battleground states has its own set of rules for processing and counting ballots, which could lead to delayed or shifting results:

• Pennsylvania: In 2020, no clear winner was declared for several days after Election Day due to mail ballot backlogs. Experts predict a similar pattern, with Trump leading initially before Harris gains ground as mail ballots are counted.
• Wisconsin: Early votes may be delayed in reporting as mail ballots are processed on Election Day, potentially leading to large batches of votes being reported later in the night.
• Georgia: Early in-person voting is popular, and mail ballots are processed beginning two weeks before Election Day. However, Georgia law requires all votes to be counted and reported by 8 p.m. ET on Election Day, making for potentially quick reporting of results.
• Arizona: A state with a high rate of mail-in voting, Arizona’s early results may initially favor Harris, but as Election Day votes are tallied, Trump could see a shift in the numbers.
• Michigan: In a change from 2020, Michigan now permits early in-person voting, and allows jurisdictions with more than 5,000 people to begin processing and tabulating mail ballots up to eight days before Election Day. Smaller jurisdictions can start the day before, which could lead to later shifts in the results.
• North Carolina: Experts predict Harris may initially lead in North Carolina due to mail-in ballots, but Trump could narrow the gap as in-person Election Day votes are counted.
• Nevada: Nevada accepts late-arriving mail ballots, which could result in shifts toward Harris as the counting continues after Election Day.

In some states, the timing of mail-in and early vote counts will play a critical role in shaping early returns.

Experts caution that Trump’s campaign team may declare victory prematurely, particularly if the votes remaining to be counted are heavily in his favor or if the remaining ballots are from Democratic-leaning areas.

The outcome of the election will depend on how and when each state processes and counts ballots, with early returns expected to be incomplete in many of these crucial battleground states.

Voters and analysts alike will need to wait for the final, more comprehensive counts before drawing conclusions.