Trump Gives First Timeline for End of Iran War, Predicts Oil Prices Will Fall After Midterms

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump has for the first time linked the possible end of the Iran war to the US midterm elections, saying he expects the conflict to end immediately after the November 3 elections and predicting that oil prices will then fall sharply.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Trump said he believed Iran would no longer be able to continue the confrontation after the elections because of mounting US economic pressure.

“I think war is going to end immediately after the election because they can’t hold out any longer,” Trump said.

He also predicted that oil prices would begin falling rapidly once the conflict ended, saying they would be “tumbling downward” after the election.

Trump said the United States was not currently waiting for negotiations with Iran, but he did not rule out the possibility of talks resuming.

Asked about a potential diplomatic breakthrough, Trump said negotiations could take place, although they were not something Washington was actively pursuing at the moment.

He also maintained that Iran was seeking to develop nuclear weapons and repeated his warning that an Iranian nuclear capability would pose a major threat to the world.

Trump suggested that any future negotiations could involve issues that had not been on the table three months earlier.

Trump’s prediction comes as the Iran conflict continues to disrupt global energy markets.

Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on Wednesday, settling at around $101.21, while US West Texas Intermediate crude reached approximately $96.05. The surge followed renewed attacks involving Iranian and US-linked shipping around the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait previously carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies, making prolonged disruption a major concern for international energy markets.

The latest escalation has severely reduced oil flows through the strategic waterway, while uncertainty over shipments has added a substantial geopolitical risk premium to crude prices.

Reuters reported that industry estimates put Gulf oil exports at roughly two-thirds of their pre-war levels despite covert tanker movements through the Strait.

Analysts have warned that continued disruption could keep energy prices elevated well beyond the end of 2026.

Trump’s comments come only weeks before the November 3, 2026 US midterm elections, which could become an important test of his handling of the Iran war and the resulting cost-of-living pressures.

US gasoline prices have also risen sharply alongside crude oil, increasing pressure on American consumers and creating a significant political challenge for the administration.

Trump’s prediction that the war will end immediately after the election and that oil prices will then collapse places considerable political significance on the November vote.

For now, however, the conflict remains active, oil prices are above the $100 mark and no durable diplomatic settlement between Washington and Tehran has been reached.