Trump or Harris: Historian makes bold prediction about US presidential elections

Allan Lichtman, who accurately predicted nine out of 10 recent presidential elections, has made the call for the upcoming polls as well.

According to him, an October surprise that could upend the 2024 presidential race is a “myth.”

He last month predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris would win.

His prediction is based off thirteen keys, or “big picture true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party,” the New York Times reported.

Lichtman’s prediction came at a time when a neck to neck contest is expected in some national and state polls between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

“I don’t change my prediction and response to the polls,” Lichtman said on NewsNation Monday. “If I did, I would have been dead wrong about 2016. I would have been dead wrong about 2020 and the polls turned against Obama around this time in October.”

Lichtman added that his system is based on the “fundamental forces that drive elections.”

“That is, it’s governing, not campaigning that counts and the keys gauge the strength and performance of the White House party and this whole idea of an October surprise is a huge myth,” he said. “I’ve always made my predictions before then, and never change them.”