Professor Jiang Xiuqin’s Prediction: Will US be defeated in the Iran war?

Chinese Professor Jiang Xiuqin, a Yale graduate and analyst on the Predictive History platform, has offered a forward-looking perspective on the current American-Israeli war on Iran. In 2024, Jiang made three notable predictions:

1. Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency

2. The outbreak of war with Iran

3. The possibility that the US could lose such a war

With the first two predictions already coming true, Jiang’s third prediction has drawn attention. He emphasizes that the war’s outcome will depend not on sheer military power, but on endurance and resilience.

Attrition as Strategy

Jiang views the conflict as a prolonged struggle, not a quick war. Iran’s strategy relies on gradual erosion of its opponents’ resources, similar to how Vietnam wore down the US during the Vietnam War.

Unlike Vietnam, Iran today has advanced missiles, drones, electronic warfare capabilities, regional alliances, and control over the Strait of Hormuz, giving it significant leverage in a long-term conflict.

The key is not winning individual battles, but managing the cumulative costs of time, money, and political pressure.

The Gulf as a Strategic Arena

The Gulf region is central to the conflict. Its importance goes beyond energy and shipping; it affects global markets, trade routes, and technological supply chains. Prolonged conflict could:

• Strain US resources and global markets

• Challenge Gulf states’ economic and social stability

• Affect food security, as Gulf countries import nearly 90% of their food through the Strait of Hormuz

Regional leaders have highlighted that the war is driven by Washington and Tel Aviv, rather than the Gulf itself.

The American Home Front

Domestic politics in the US may also shape the conflict. Public opposition to foreign wars has grown, and the “America First” agenda, which helped return Trump to power, emphasizes reducing overseas military entanglements.

Prolonged war could increase domestic opposition, weaken political support, and create pressure on the administration. Recent polls and congressional votes already show divisions over military interventions abroad.

Israel and Limits of Endurance

Israel favors swift, decisive wars to avoid prolonged economic and social strain. A long conflict would challenge this strategy. Early economic losses are already in billions of dollars, and societal concerns are rising.

While some in Israel see the war as an opportunity to neutralize Iran, the country must balance strategic ambitions with its economic and social capacity to sustain prolonged conflict.

Global Implications: China and Russia

The war also affects broader geopolitics. Russia may benefit from a US entanglement while supporting Iran politically and militarily. China sees Iran as a strategic partner and could use the conflict to reduce American influence while protecting its interests in global supply chains.

Both nations may eventually push for diplomatic solutions to reshape the international order toward a more multipolar system.

The Central Question: Sustainability

Jiang’s key insight is that wars of attrition do not end in dramatic battlefield collapses. Instead, they gradually exhaust political, economic, and social resources.

• Washington faces political divisions and rising costs

• Israel confronts economic and social pressure

• The Gulf faces food security and stability challenges

• Iran relies on societal resilience and internal capacity

The question is not military power alone, but the ability to endure the costs of war over time. If Jiang’s prediction of a US defeat occurs, it may not look like a sudden collapse, but as gradual erosion of political influence and an inability to achieve strategic goals.

This could lead to either a chaotic withdrawal or a negotiated settlement, with endurance and resilience defining the outcome.