Former US Negotiator Warns of Major ‘Strategic Defeat’ as Iran Tightens Grip on Hormuz

Former US negotiator Aaron David Miller has warned that the United States could face a major strategic defeat if Iran gains greater leverage and control over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes.

Speaking in an interview with Australia’s ABC network, Miller said Washington could be forced to accept arrangements that give Iran more influence over which vessels and goods can pass through the strategic waterway.

He said such an outcome would be a serious setback for the United States and its Arab allies in the Persian Gulf.

Miller made the comments while discussing reported negotiations between Iran and Oman over arrangements to ensure the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. He said it was still too early to confirm whether a final agreement had been reached, but warned that any deal that increases Iran’s influence would be a significant strategic loss for Washington.

“The (Persian) Gulf states need to decide whether or not they can acquiesce or even support such an accord. And then, once a text is made public, the administration is going to have to weigh in to see whether or not they’re able to accept. But, again, my confidence level here is not entirely as high these days,” he said.

Miller also said the Persian Gulf states have limited influence over US President Donald Trump as a group, but Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have greater leverage because of their strong business connections with the Trump family.

He said the Trump administration, members of the president’s family, including son-in-law Jared Kushner, as well as Steve Witkoff and others, have benefited from major investments connected to projects in the Persian Gulf.

“Affinity Partners, which is Jared Kushner’s $2 billion hedge fund, was bankrolled by Mohammed bin Salman, the future king of Saudi Arabia,” Miller noted.

Miller also warned that any US attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure could lead to a strong Iranian response and create serious consequences for global energy markets.

He said the full extent of possible damage Iran could cause to oil facilities in the Persian Gulf has not yet been seen.

According to Miller, a major escalation could “drive oil prices well north of anything we’ve seen.”

His comments highlight concerns over the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and the possible economic impact of any further escalation between the United States and Iran.