Major win for Pakistan as court keeps Indus Waters Treaty fully in force

Islamabad: Pakistan has secured a major victory in the international arbitration proceedings over the Indus Waters Treaty, with the Court of Arbitration unanimously ruling that India cannot unilaterally suspend or terminate the agreement and that the treaty remains fully in force. The court also imposed restrictions on construction work at India’s Ratle hydroelectric project, barring concreting of parts of the dam above specified levels pending a Neutral Expert’s final decision expected in July 2027.

The ruling came on Monday in proceedings initiated by Pakistan against India under Article IX and Annexure G of the Indus Waters Treaty.
In its Award on Treaty Status, the five-member Court of Arbitration examined India’s decision in April 2025 to hold the treaty “in abeyance” following an alleged attack in Indian illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.

The court found that India’s decision could only amount to a claim that the treaty had either been suspended or terminated. It examined the possible grounds for such action, including those cited by India in its public statements, but unanimously concluded that none could justify suspension or termination.

The Indus Waters Treaty, therefore, remains fully in force and India is required to observe all its obligations under the agreement, including those relating to the design and operation of its hydroelectric projects on the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers and their tributaries, known as the western rivers.

The decision represents a significant setback to India’s position that it could keep the treaty in abeyance.

In a separate Order on Interim Measures, the court partly accepted Pakistan’s request for restrictions on construction at the Ratle Hydroelectric Plant.

It ordered India not to concrete the Ratle dam wall and power intake structure above specified levels until 90 days after the Neutral Expert delivers his final decision on whether the project’s design complies with the treaty.

The Neutral Expert’s decision is expected in July 2027.

The court also imposed a reporting measure concerning the Ratle construction schedule, which will remain in place until shortly after the Neutral Expert’s final decision.

The proceedings concern Pakistan’s objections to the design of certain run-of-river hydroelectric projects that India is permitted under the treaty to construct on the western rivers before they flow into Pakistan.

The dispute involves two specific Indian projects — the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric plants — which are also the subject of proceedings before a Neutral Expert, a highly qualified engineer appointed by the World Bank.

Pakistan had asked the Court of Arbitration to interpret and apply the treaty provisions governing the design and operation of India’s hydroelectric projects on the western rivers.

The arbitration panel is chaired by Professor Sean D. Murphy of the United States. Its other members are Professor Wouter Buytaert of Belgium, Professor Jeffrey P. Minear of the United States, Judge Awn Shawkat Al-Khasawneh of Jordan and Dr Donald Blackmore of Australia.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration, based in The Hague, is acting as the secretariat for the proceedings.