Who will be the next Pope? AI predicts the new head of the Roman Catholic Church

Following the passing of Pope Francis at age 88, the Catholic Church has entered a period of mourning and preparation for one of the world’s most secretive elections – the papal conclave that will select the next leader of 1.3 billion Catholics worldwide.

The Conclave Process Explained
The election will begin no sooner than 15 days after the Pope’s death, allowing time for cardinals from around the world to gather in Rome. A total of 135 cardinal electors (those under age 80) will be locked inside the Sistine Chapel under strict secrecy – the word “conclave” itself comes from Latin meaning “with key.”

During this period:

• All electronic devices and outside communication are prohibited

• The Sistine Chapel will be swept for listening devices

• Cardinals will live in the Domus Sanctae Marthae residence

• Voting occurs twice daily until a candidate receives 2/3 majority

• Results are signaled by smoke – black for no decision, white for a new pope

AI Enters the Papal Prediction Game
While the Holy Spirit traditionally guides the election, artificial intelligence has now weighed in. OpenAI’s ChatGPT analyzed multiple factors to predict the most likely successor:

1. Cardinal Pietro Parolin (70, Italy) – Current Vatican Secretary of State

   • 37% probability according to betting markets

   • Worked closely with Pope Francis since 2013

   • Fluent in multiple languages

   • Architect of Vatican-China agreement

   • Moderate stance between progressive and conservative factions

2. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (67, Philippines)

   • 32% probability

   • Called “the Asian Francis”

   • Would be first Asian pope

   • Known for pastoral approach and communication skills

3. Cardinal Peter Turkson (76, Ghana)

   • Potential first Black pope

   • Focused on social justice issues

   • Former head of Vatican’s peace and justice department

4. Cardinal Péter Erdő (72, Hungary)

   • Conservative favorite

   • Strong on traditional doctrine

   • Experienced in European church politics

Why Parolin Leads the Predictions
As Vatican Secretary of State, Parolin holds the second-highest position in the Church hierarchy. His advantages include:

• Deep knowledge of Vatican operations

• Experience in international diplomacy

• Ability to unite different factions

• Continuity with Francis’s reforms while being more moderate

However, his 2018 China-Vatican agreement remains controversial, with critics claiming it compromised Church principles regarding religious freedom.

The Election Dynamics
The process could take days or weeks. Key factors include:

• Pope Francis appointed 108 of the 135 electors

• Progressive vs. conservative balance

• Growing influence of non-European cardinals

• Potential for compromise candidates to emerge

Historical Context

• Last conclave (2013): Elected Francis in 2 days

• Longest modern conclave (1922): 5 days, 14 votes

• Longest ever (1268-1271): 34 months

What Happens Next?
After election, the new pope will:

1. Choose his papal name

2. Be dressed in white papal vestments

3. Appear on St. Peter’s balcony

4. Give his first blessing “Urbi et Orbi” (to the city and the world)

While AI provides intriguing analysis, the final decision remains in the hands of the cardinal electors – and, as Catholics believe, divine guidance. The world now waits for that telltale white smoke from the Sistine Chapel chimney.