What is La Niña and How Could It Bring the Coldest Winter to Pakistan?

Pakistan is being warned of an unusually cold winter this year, possibly one of the coldest in decades. According to a report by the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG) and UN-OCHA, the climate pattern known as La Niña is expected to influence weather conditions across the country.

What Is La Niña?

La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean drop below normal. This cooling affects global weather systems, often leading to strong seasonal changes. While some regions get heavy rains, others face extreme cold or dry conditions.

Why La Niña Matters for Pakistan

The latest climate outlook suggests that Pakistan may face colder-than-usual temperatures during the upcoming winter. The report mentions that both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole are in slightly negative phases, which could intensify winter conditions.

• Northern Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, AJK, and Gilgit-Baltistan may see below-normal rainfall and severe cold.

• Sindh, Balochistan, and Southern Punjab are expected to get near-normal precipitation but may still face cold, dry winds.

Possible Winter Risks

The report highlights several potential challenges linked to La Niña:

• Disruption to Kharif crop harvesting due to unexpected storms

• Higher risk of dengue outbreaks in stagnant water areas

• Increased danger of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in northern regions

• Reduced river flow, impacting irrigation and water supply

• Rise in smog and air pollution in plains

• Negative effects on livestock and fodder availability

Pakistan is already struggling with flood recovery. The UN report warns of a declining response capacity, with humanitarian resources being stretched thin. The FAO assessment revealed that about 1.2 million hectares of crops in Punjab were damaged, affecting rice, cotton, and sugarcane. With winter approaching, food security is a growing concern.

If La Niña continues through the season, Pakistan may face prolonged cold waves, especially in northern and central regions. Rural communities, already hit by floods and economic hardship, could suffer the most without proper heating and shelter.